A bayesian analysis of beta testing

In this article, we define a model for fault detection during the beta testing phase of a software design project. Given sampled data, we illustrate how to estimate the failure rate and the number of faults in the software using Bayesian statistical methods with various different prior distributions. Secondly, given a suitable cost function, we also show how to optimise the duration of a further test period for each one of the prior distribution structures considered

A semi-parametric model for circular data based on mixtures of beta distributions

This paper introduces a new, semi-parametric model for circular data, based on mixtures of shifted, scaled, beta (SSB) densities. This model is more general than the Bernstein polynomial density model which is well known to provide good approximations to any density with finite support and it is shown that, as for the Bernstein polynomial model, the trigonometric moments of the SSB mixture model can all be derived. Two methods of fitting the SSB mixture model are considered. Firstly, a classical, maximum likelihood approach for fitting mixtures of a given number of SSB components is introduced. The Bayesian information criterion is then used for model selection. Secondly, a Bayesian approach using Gibbs sampling is considered. In this case, the number of mixture components is selected via an appropriate deviance information criterion. Both approaches are illustrated with real data sets and the results are compared with those obtained using Bernstein polynomials and mixtures of von Mises distributions

Bayesian inference for fault based software reliability models given software metrics data

We wish to predict the number of faults N and the time to next failure of a piece of software. Software metrics data are used to estimate the prior mean of N via a Poisson regression model. Given failure time data and a some well known fault based models for interfailure times, we show how to sample the relevant posterior distributions via Gibbs sampling using the package Winbugs. Our approach is illustrated with an example

Bayesian inference for the half-normal and half-t distributions

In this article we consider approaches to Bayesian inference for the half-normal and half-t distributions. We show that a generalized version of the normal-gamma distribution is conjugate to the half-normal likelihood and give the moments of this new distribution. The bias and coverage of the Bayesian posterior mean estimator of the halfnormal location parameter are compared with those of maximum likelihood based estimators. Inference for the half-t distribution is performed using Gibbs sampling and model comparison is carried out using Bayes factors. A real data example is presented which demonstrates the fitting of the half-normal and half-t models

Bayesian inference for a software reliability model using metrics information.

In this paper, we are concerned with predicting the number of faults N and the time to next failure of a piece of software. Information in the form of software metrics data is used to estimate the prior distribution of N via a Poisson regression model. Given failure time data, and a well known model for software failures, we show how to sample the posterior distribution using Gibbs sampling, as implemented in the package "WinBugs". The approach is illustrated with a practical example

On the Conjecture of Kochar and Korwar

In this paper, we solve for some cases a conjecture by Kochar and Korwar (1996) in relation with the normalized spacings of the order statistics related to a sample of independent exponential random variables with different scale parameter. In the case of a sample of size n=3, they proved the ordering of the normalized spacings and conjectured that result holds for all n. We give the proof of this conjecture for n=4 and for both spacing and normalized spacings. We also generalize some results to n>

On identifiability of MAP processes

Two types of transitions can be found in the Markovian Arrival process or MAP: with and without arrivals. In transient transitions the chain jumps from one state to another with no arrival; in effective transitions, a single arrival occurs. We assume that in practice, only arrival times are observed in a MAP. This leads us to define and study the Effective Markovian Arrival process or E-MAP. In this work we define identifiability of MAPs in terms of equivalence between the corresponding E-MAPs and study conditions under which two sets of parameters induce identical laws for the observable process, in the case of 2 and 3-states MAP. We illustrate and discuss our results with examples

Bayesian inference and prediction for the GI/M/1 queueing system

This article undertake Bayesian inference and prediction for GI/M/1 queueing systems. A semiparametric model based on mixtures of Erlang distributions is considered to model the general interarrival time distribution. Given arrival and service data, a Bayesian procedure based on birth-death Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods is proposed. An estimation of the system parameters and predictive distributions of measures such as the stationary system size and waiting time is give

Bayesian estimation for the M/G/1 queue using a phase type approximation

This article deals with Bayesian inference and prediction for M/G/1 queueing systems. The general service time density is approximated with a class of Erlang mixtures which are phase type distributions. Given this phase type approximation, an explicit evaluation of measures such as the stationary queue size, waiting time and busy period distributions can be obtained. Given arrival and service data, a Bayesian procedure based on reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods is proposed to estimate system parameters and predictive distributions

Using weibull mixture distributions to model heterogeneous survival data

In this article we use Bayesian methods to fit a Weibull mixture model with an unknown number of components to possibly right censored survival data. This is done using the recently developed, birth-death MCMC algorithm. We also show how to estimate the survivor function and the expected hazard rate from the MCMA output